000
FXUS62 KRAH 070744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
244 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RAPIDLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST TO 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING.

1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN VA AND NC THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH NC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BENEATH A MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO EXPAND FROM THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. ASIDE FROM THE PASSAGE OF SOME CIRRUS
FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THIS MORNING -- THE BULK OF WHICH SHOULD
PASS NORTH OF NC -- SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY... AND SUPPORT PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S OVER
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

DESPITE AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR TWO TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH AND CONTINUED AIR MASS
MODIFICATION TONIGHT... CONTINUED CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITHIN
THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OF GENERALLY 35 TO 40 DEGREES EXPECTED...
WITH PATCHY FROST AGAIN POSSIBLE AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...

MAINLY JUST A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN THIS PERIOD GIVEN CONTINUED
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT... WHEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF IDA SHOULD STREAM INTO THE CAROLINAS.
LATEST HPC/TPC PREFERRED TRACK AND TIMING SUGGEST ANY ASSOCIATED
CENTRAL NC PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SUGGEST LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH
SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IF OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE SLOWER/FASTER
TO ARRIVE... THEN THESE LOWS MAY NEED A DOWNWARD/UPWARD ADJUSTMENT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. IN ADDITION... A MAJOR PLAYER
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STILL APPEARS TO BE A POLAR OR
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TOO QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY VEERING THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS FROM SW TO NW... EFFECTIVELY PUSHING OR KEEPING MUCH OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING THIS FAR NORTHWARD. ANOTHER BIG
PLAYER IN THE MIX APPEARS TO BE THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AS WELL
AS HOW THEY INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER IN TIME... WERE STILL IN
QUESTION THIS MORNING. THEY WILL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN SUMMARY... THE CANADIAN CONTINUED TO BE AN EXTREME OUTLIER WITH A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS MOISTURE AND WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE NAM AND SREF KEEP THE REMNANTS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING OUR REGION. THE
GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AS IT IS CLOSEST TO THE CURRENT TPC
FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... WITH A CHILLY NE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
DEPICTED WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. UNLESS
THE FORECAST CHANGES... THIS WOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR
OUR REGION.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

THE NEXT SHOT AT MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARD
OUR REGION. HOWEVER... THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PULLED
THIS FAR NE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007011-
021028-038043-073078-083086-088-089.

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT/BADGETT